Chapter 7 of the BBI report exclusively focuses on shared prosperity with nothing totally new if previous or existing policy and legal documents are to go by. The report points out existential economic challenges such as extreme poverty and hunger, unemployment and underemployment especially among young people, extreme income inequality, lack of decent income and rent-seeking. 

In due course, the report puts forth a number of recommendations such as establishing initiatives for the youth to embrace innovation and entrepreneurship, better use of scarce resources, stamping out corruption, addressing unsustainable debt and environmental destruction, building the economy from the grassroots, and the need to ignite an economic revolution. 

Productivity of Kenya’s economy is highly questionable and hence the persistence of relatively high rates of unemployment and underemployment. Mandarins at The National Treasury have over the last five or so years presented a rosy picture of a growing and resilient economy but the reality suggests otherwise.

No doubt that a growing and robust economy is one that is highly productive and generates a high number of meaningful, decent and sustainable jobs. The 2019 Economic Survey published by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) indicates that a total of 840,600 jobs (formal and informal) were created in 2018 of which 78,400 were formal jobs. This translates to a paltry 9.3% of the total number of jobs created. 

In fact, a local daily reported earlier this year that “the number of formal jobs generated by the economy fell to a six-year low in 2018” with “the economy having expanded over the same period by 6.3%.” 

Recently, the Central Bank of Kenya Governor, Dr. Patrick Njoroge, castigated the suspended duo of Henry Rotich and Kamau Thugge of distorting revenue figures. The same could be said of the GDP figures which as elaborated in a previous article, is a powerful political tool that governments use to score political points. 

Persistence of a high number of informal and indecent jobs is firmed up by a news feature published by the Business Daily highlighting that “the number of Kenyans earning below Shs.30,000 per month has risen to nearly half of the total employed workers.” This amounts to a total of 1,279,982 workers. 

Statistical data by KNBS also indicates that three quarters of Kenyans (about 2 million) employed in the formal sector earn less than Shs.50,000 per month. The dire status of employed Kenyans is corroborated by an article published by Boston Review which indicates the reality of the zero-balance economy. 

Accordingly, the zero-balance economy refers to the economic situation where economic agents or individuals find it difficult to meet the daily or regular costs with the available cash. This is the norm for majority of Kenyans in the formal and informal sectors resulting into an increase in the level of private/household debt. 

While the BBI report recommends implementation of policies that would lead to creation of a high number of jobs, it is important to mention that the recommendations would be best addressed through the existing institutional framework(s). For instance, the National Employment Authority (NEA) established in April 2016 has the mandate of enhancing employment management, facilitating employment promotion interventions, and enabling the youth, minority and marginalized entities to access employment opportunities. 

So far, NEA has failed in its mandate and the BBI report should instead vouch for strengthening of its institutional capacity. 

Additionally, the BBI report recommends raising the “national savings rates beyond 25% of GDP.” This is simply not feasible with the prevailing economic conditions. Existence of a zero-balance economy, having more than a half of the total number of employed Kenyans earning below Shs.30,000 per month, and most jobs generated by the informal sector certainly makes it impossible for the majority to save. 

CEIC Data estimates Kenya’s Gross Savings Rate to be 6.1% of the GDP as at December 2018 compared to 11.7% in December 2007. While the figures should not be interpreted in absolute sense, they are indicators of the chequered performance of Kenya’s economy. The relatively high Gross Savings Rate recorded in 2007 is alluded to the robust economic growth buoyed by implementation of the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation. 

An increase in the national savings rate will only be possible if a large proportion of government-sourced capitation is directed to sectors where majority of Kenyans eke out a living. In recommending the need for an economic revolution, the BBI report documents structured lending “to priority sectors such as micro, small and medium businesses, export credit, manufacturing, housing, education, health, renewable energy, sanitation and waste management, and agriculture.” 

The aforementioned recommendation does not require any sort of legislation or policy for its operationalization. Instead, it is a matter of the Executive and Parliament at both levels of government to implement existing policy documents that advocate for robust, grassroots-led economic growth. For instance, the Jubilee administration should have fully implemented the Agricultural Sector Development Strategy 2010-2020. 

We are accustomed to brick-and-mortar type of economic model with politicians well aware that the significant majority tend to rejoice with the sight of construction of roads, sea ports, airports, railway lines among others. This is the model adopted by the Jubilee administration with billions channeled to construction of very expensive existent and non-existent infrastructural projects. 

If only a half or a quarter of the total amount of money borrowed by the Jubilee administration from the East and West was directed to the agricultural sector, then the country’s economic performance would be visible leading to an increase in creation of decent jobs and the national savings rate. 

More importantly, the BBI report recommends securing Kenya’s future generations from unsustainable debt. A bit reasonable but ridiculous considering the economic policies on debt management pursued by the same administration and government that will possibly lay the framework for implementation of the stated recommendation. 

Kenya’s public debt is currently estimated to be Shs.6 trillion. Kenya’s Parliament has since 2013 voted to increase the debt ceiling at the behest of the faltering Executive. Recently, Parliament approved raising the debt ceiling to Shs.9 trillion which is almost equivalent to the country’s GDP. The motive for increasing the debt ceiling is to enable the government settle expensive debts with the approval premised on the recently assented Finance Act of 2019.   

The stated recommendation seeks to contain the upward debt spiral which is a positive move that could have long been implemented by The National Treasury in collaboration with Parliament. But as long as an irresponsible national government is in place, effective debt management is just a mirage.

The BBI report promises shared prosperity but this can hardly be achieved with an irresponsible government. Effective political goodwill will guarantee efficient implementation of existing policies and legislations. Therefore, the BBI report is just a reminder of the institutional failure that characterizes Kenya’s governance system. Shared prosperity can only be engendered by enlightened voters and a competent political leadership. 

The writer is a political economist and consultant/analyst on governance, geopolitics and public policy, and a youth leader at Kenya YMCA. Twitter: @SitatiWasilwa. Email: sitatiwasilwa13@gmail.com. 

This article was first published by The African Executive.

The Building Bridges Initiative collected recommendations from 7,000 Kenyans and compiled them in what is now the BBI Report that was released on Wednesday, 27th November 2019 to the public for further discussion.

The taskforce was formed to look into 9 matters and recommend solutions by collecting perspectives from the public: How to end ethnic division, inclusivity, how to solve polarizing elections, safety and security, how to deal with corruption, how to deal with lack of national ethos, responsibility and rights, shared prosperity and enhancing devolution.

The BBI Report raises several concerns that Kenyans have with themselves, with their fellow citizens and with their leaders. On matters youth, because we are an institution that focuses mainly youth, there was mention of a 7-year tax break to support youth entrepreneurship and job creation, setting up business advisors in all Huduma Centers amongst others aimed at ensuring the Kenyan youth are empowered. Also beneficial to young people is the allocation to counties to be increased to at least 35%, it also suggested that parastatals carrying out county government functions be either wound up or restructured. Depending on the county, as a young person it is difficult to find a standardized department that works with young people. Some counties clump it with information technology, some business, others sports and culture. Due to this young people are often confused when searching for information or resources, while leadership is confused on representation on certain aspects. On that aspect, some counties have developed a County Youth Policy, which is not necessarily in line with the National Youth Policy, too many cooks can spoil the broth.

We need to recognize that the solutions for the problems bedeviling Kenya are not all legal. Indeed, the law is important and the hallmark of any democratic society is the reality adherence to the rule of law. But we cannot forget that a few weeks ago we witnessed the Chief Justice weep about an underfunded Judiciary. We have seen a number of governors and cabinet secretaries have court cases but continue to work unperturbed of the accusations that impact their office. The Governor of Nairobi is being defended Senators, whose main role is to oversight Counties. It is morally unethical. While some officials refuse to obey court orders, and behaving like spoiled disobedient children.

The issues facing Kenya today are complex that will not be solved by creating a happiness department. For the report to be deliberated on, it needs to be in a language understood by all and distributed to many. We have the same issue with the constitution, worded in English and available to some. There are options of online accessibility but not all have access to the internet, to read a soft copy document. 

The tradition of lack of implementation is a lingering fear. Political good will is important on the part of the Executive. But many are busy ranting about a Prime Minister position which is not the magic silver bullet to fix an entire nation. There are existing reports that we can pursue to bring about change that were once again shelved…Is there nothing from the past that we can build on? Eg. TJRC?  Encouraging whistleblowers is a step in the right direction, but much more will be needed to protect them, much more than 5% reward, which is useless when one’s life is cut short by a system controlled by the rich and powerful, and unfortunately for us, most are in government. 

The fact that the Ndegwa Commission is in existence and allows civil servants to do business with government is a contradiction of our constitution, in article 77, restricting some activities of state officers who should not be pursuing personal interests in the first place. That is how only the government appears to be doing well during these hard economic times. Historical injustices have still gone unanswered. Matters such as land were not tackled in any fashion, yet we are aware that land is a major tenacious matter.

Divisive elections majorly occur due to access to resources. The happiness in this country, having a department will not be the solution. If we never have an honest deliberation and actions focused on equity then we are talking about symptoms and not a root cause. Proper services provided by our government will quickly make us happy, accountable systems that do not plunder our taxpayer monies, would put a smile on our faces.

Not every young person is an entrepreneur, the implication of self-employment by young people is an overplayed tune. Decent work, gainful and meaningful employment is the conversation starter. The compromises that the country will require to make are such that the focus should be on identifying issues we agree on, suggestions we support and better alternatives. For far too long, politicians have held the country hostage. Citizens have been relegated to the background of most discourses. Following several debates, one gets the impression that this trend may be set to continue. We should not let this happen.

A collective written by Siasa Place

Data has always influenced government operations and in the process used as a tool to score political goals. History indicates that invention of statistical procedures has often been instrumental in redistribution of economic resources and economic planning.
Ideally, national budgets should be formulated based on data collected by the government. The accuracy or inaccuracy of the data may lead to attainment or lack thereof of expected policy outcomes. A blog article published by the Center for Global Development (CDG) highlights why bad data is synonymous with African governments. The authors highlight that the political economy of bad data arises from factors such as lack of effective checks and balances on financial rewards associated with data, political interference and inadequate and inconsistent funding of statistical agencies.

Recently, the Kenyan government presided over a week-long national population census with fundamental concerns raised about personal data security and credibility of the exercise. A few days before the onset of the national population census, Uhuru Kenyatta assented the Statistics Amendment Bill into law (Statistics Act 2019) arguably to counter opposition to credibility of the process and outcome.

Need to Worry
A new clause in the Statistics Act 2019 allows for the cancellation, revision or adjustment of data deemed to be inaccurate. Well, this may quickly address the anomalies of bad data but considering the big brother role of government, there is need to worry about the eventuality of data manipulation. Manipulation of data (data on population, food security, Gross Domestic Product, inflation, affirmative action, public debt, wage bill, education etc.) will lead to formulation of distorted policies or lack of accountability from the national government.

Kenya’s rising public debt and consistent failure of the Jubilee administration to deliver on its big promises set stage for manipulation of data to gain political capital. Latest statistical information from the Central Bank of Kenya indicates that the total public debt amounted to Kshs.5.809 trillion as at June 2019.

It will not be a surprise in case the national government, the Executive in particular, resorts to present manipulated data to indicate that all is well in regards to the level of public debt. This would involve understating or misreporting the actual amount of public debt.

Why public debt?

It is spiraling upwards at an alarming rate and the performance of the economy is not sufficient to offset it, and politicians serving in the corrupt Jubilee administration would want to score political goals as far as borrowing is concerned with the 2022 general elections fast approaching.

GDP statistics may also be doctored by the regime ostensibly to paint a rosy picture to current and prospective ‘development partners’. ‘Development partners are religiously obsessed with fanciful GDP growth rates and the Executive would easily manipulate GDP data either to borrow more or not to scare the Chinese government and other debtors, on Kenya’s inability to meet its debt obligations. Lorenzo Fioramonti documents in his book, “Gross Domestic Problem”, that GDP is “an extremely powerful political tool” and “also a powerful propaganda tool”.

Assuring the Chinese that the debt mill is not running out of steam would be important for guarding Kenya’s sovereignty as Beijing may want to take hold of the latter’s resources such as the port of Mombasa or the oil in Turkana among others. China took over Malaysia’s key infrastructural project after Malaysia failed to service Chinese loans.

Last year, concerns were raised about the possibility of the Chinese government taking over the port of Mombasa and the then Auditor General Edward Ouko weighed in on the matter pointing out the possibility of Beijing annexing the infrastructural facility.
Kenyans have to be more worried about their privacy considering failed political projects like the Huduma Number. Huduma Number is undemocratic. The move by the Executive to force people to register for a dubious project even with a court order stating that the registration should be voluntary negates the rights and freedoms of the masses.

Dim Future?
In a world where data mining is a cash cow, Kenyans risk having their personal information misused. Cambridge Analytica demonstrated how to profit from data in the era of fast-paced technological advancement. Never mind that the firm was hired by the Jubilee administration to exploit Kenya’s socio-political fault lines in the lead up to the 2017 general elections.

The 2022 general elections may witness an intensified approach in reference to the use of big data as a political strategy. But who cares? The big brother government? Certainly not. Parliament no longer advocates for the goodwill of the masses. Although the Huduma Bill promises to protect personal data, the government cannot be trusted. Selfish interests trample collective interests. And government mandarins are without doubt more selfish.

Having the right data and good intentions would help the government and its agencies plan efficiently especially on food security, education and healthcare. Planning is a political process and data is an effective political and propaganda tool which could easily sabotage democracy. Kenya could as well be a statistic of politicizing data.

The writer is a political economist, consultant on governance and public policy and a youth leaders at Kenya YMCA. He blogs at sitatiwasilwa.home.blog and savicltd.wordpress.com (sitatiwasilwa13@gmail.com).

We live in a country where we anticipate, entertain and pay homage to corruption without guilt nor second thoughts. The integrity as well as the system’s sense of duty has been compromised and is vulnerable to attacks from people entrusted with responsibility. It is very unfortunate and clear that the political class is whining and fussing about the fight against corruption in a bid to secure their egotistic future ambitions. The war on corruption has been nothing but a witch hunt, an expose expedition where figures are quoted and the case will eventually be blown away by a magic wand. Surely, the burden is for us the people to carry, no aid or remedy is coming anytime soon.

When adamant, persistent people convene towards a common cause, the success rate is significantly substantial. A classic scenario is when issues went haywire for Algerians in terms of governance. They came out relentlessly in unison from all walks of life to call for the successful resignation of their former head of state Abdul Aziz Bouteflika. Across our boarder in a historical twist of events against all odds Omar AL Bashir was toppled through protest after weeks of demonstrations. The most intriguing part in the midst of all these is that the youth took the frontline in shunning despicable acts as well as being actively involved in the uprising. Corruption is ripping our society apart, it’s upon us the youth to rise up as one and take the most appropriate action as enshrined in our constitution.

Time has clearly stated that as Kenyans we are very forgetful, ignorant and don’t hold leaders accountable for their actions instead we mold an excellent audience that entertains mediocrity. The above conditions provide a lucrative environment for underhand ideas to take precedence as well as illegal businesses. For instance, today you part away with millions of public funds and you are branded an enemy of the people. Ironically, tomorrow you come with the millions for campaigns, sane citizens overwhelmingly hail your claim and elect you into office to loot billions while the same electorate languish in poverty. I challenge the youth in each and every county to ask questions, demand progress and keep their respective leaders on the watch list.

Finally, corruption goes far and beyond the political class to other fields of specialization. The perpetrators and architects of these heinous acts of corruption thrive and live among us; from distinguished public institutions, private entities to day to day activities of the Kenyan population at large. It is mandatory to embrace professionalism as well as observe ethical codes of conduct when exercising your expertise. In order to kick corruption out of our line of duty, young enthusiastic Kenyan practitioners should think differently, beyond greed for ill earned riches and wealth. We have an incredible future to orchestrate and a disgusting present to restructure, our reputation as a country is at stake

Written by Burns Noah an undergraduate at Kenyatta University pursuing BSc Petroleum Engineering
Twitter: @The_Analyst00